This could lead to future
instability in the world's most populous country as wannabe successors
jockey for power within a Communist Party (CCP) completely dominated by
the 64-year-old Xi.
And his
absolute authority will also leave him vulnerable to absolute blame in
the instance of an economic shock or foreign policy crisis.
The
latter could be increasingly likely, as Xi's rule so far has been
characterized by a more bullish military and diplomatic policy as China
seeks to move into a power vacuum left in Asia by a retreating Washington.
Factional politics
Following Mao Zedong's death in 1976-- in the wake of the Cultural Revolution, during which tens of
thousands of people were killed and the country was racked by civil war
-- his successors moved away from one-man rule towards a consensus
system where power was shared by a handful of high-ranking Party
officials.
This resulted in
relatively straightforward transition of power from Presidents Jiang
Zemin to Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping, after each served two five-year terms
in office.
Early in Xi's first term however, it became apparent he would seek to buck this trend. He was declared "
core leader" of the Party, and state media began
building up his public image with the type of hagiography not seen since Mao.
This
culminated with "Xi Jinping Thought" being added to the Party
constitution last year, at a key meeting in which Xi failed to nominate
an obvious successor, fueling speculation he would stay on as leader
past 2023.
Margaret Lewis, a law
professor and expert on China's constitution at Seton Hall University,
said under Xi "what we've seen is an increasing lack of sharing of power
even among the top leadership."
"Xi's modus operandi is consolidation of power," she said.
That
could pose a problem to him in the long run. While Chinese politics is
not remotely democratic in the traditional sense, there are certain
checks and balances within the Party system itself, with reformers and
conservatives seeing their power and influence waxing and waning over
time.
Jon Sullivan, director of
the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, said Xi
remaining as President and head of state, "negates the
institutionalization of power transitions that have served the Party
well for 35 years, enabling it to avoid damaging schisms that have
plagued other Communist regimes."
While many internal CCP matters happen in a black box,
most experts agree that there are factions within the party -- such as
the so-called "Shanghai clique" around former President Jiang Zemin.
Some have argued Xi's far-reaching anti-graft campaign is itself a tool
to go after factional enemies and potential rivals.
That anti-corruption campaign will also get a boost with
upcoming constitutional changes due to create a National Supervision Commission (NSC) with sweeping new enforcement powers, potentially affecting a much greater swath of China's population.
Message to enemies
Richard McGregor, author of "The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers,"
wrote
after Sunday's announcement that it "sends a warning to his legion of
enemies at the top of the party who have been hit by the anti-corruption
campaign: he is not going anywhere."
"Xi's
ability to push this decision through in the short-term is undoubtedly a
display of his grip on all levers of power," McGregor wrote. "But the
very fact that he feels the need to do so could easily be a sign of
something else -- that he is possessed by an urgency to gather even more
power than he already has to keep his enemies at bay."
This
could result in increased pushback from within the Party, as those who
had hoped to weather the Xi storm now have no option but to fight
against him out of self-preservation.
According
to Sullivan, term limits not only restrict the power of individual
leaders, they give other elites and factions the consolation that there
would be an opportunity to change the status quo after two terms.
"That
'consolation' is an important pressure valve that prevents crippling
inner party battles. By getting rid of it, Xi is banking on being able
to contain and neutralize his opponents," said Sullivan.
But doing so, Sullivan added, "will necessitate greater levels of repression, both in society and within the Party-state."
Repression and tyranny
Some
of that repression was on show in the immediate aftermath of the
announcement, when a flurry of discussion and criticism on Chinese
social media was swiftly censored and controlled.
Comments
on posts by state broadcaster CCTV announcing the news were deleted, as
were those on the People's Daily newspaper and Xinhua news agency, and
searches for key terms were blocked.
According to watchdog service
FreeWeibo,
top searches ahead of the blocking including "ascension to the throne,"
"term limits" and "Winnie the Pooh," a reference to the cartoon
character which has become a
mocking symbol of Xi on the Chinese internet.
Results
for some of those topics on Weibo itself appeared to be being actively
filtered, while others returned the message "search results are not
shown in accordance with relevant laws, regulations and policies."
One
term being completely censored was "Yuan Shikai," the former President
of the Republic of China who dissolved a democratically-elected
parliament in 1913 and appointed himself emperor.
A
statement
signed by a dozen leading Chinese dissidents, including former
Tiananmen Square protest leaders Wang Dan and Wu'er Kaixi, also
referenced the short-lived reign of the "Hongxian Emperor."
"We
believe that the abolition of (term limits) is the equivalent of Yuan
Shikai's revival of the imperial dynasty, it is the implementation of a
new imperial system," the statement said.
History
shows, they added, that lifelong "supreme rule and tyranny are
inseparable and will surely bring great disasters to the country and its
people."
Great power, great responsibility
While
Xi's immediate grip on power is in little doubt, enabling him to enact
whatever reforms and policies he desires, analysts warned that if things
go south, he will have little room to avoid blame.
"If
'consolidation of power' was a precondition for implementing his reform
program and leading the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, that
condition has now been met and he needs to deliver," said Sullivan.
"And,
if he doesn't deliver and refuses to go quietly, well that's a scenario
we've seen play out in other regimes many times before," said Sullivan
A key test may come from outside China. Nowhere has Xi's
new bullish leadership been more obvious than in China's foreign and military policy.
In the South China Sea, Beijing has continued the
militarization of islands, reefs and islets in defiance of an international court ruling.
Last
year, the People's Liberation Army -- reform and modernization of which
has been a key Xi policy -- engaged in a months-long stand off with
Indian troops over the
disputed territory of Doklam, in the Himalayas, and China has
sought to increase its military and economic influence in South Asia.
Under Xi, China has also
taken a much tougher line on Taiwan.
Beijing considers the self-ruled island, officially the Republic of
China, part of its territory, and has not ruled out military action to
reclaim it, even as support for full-independence from the mainland has
grown among Taiwanese.
Tom
Rafferty, a China expert at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said
China's "move in an authoritarian direction will harden the divisions
that have emerged between it and the major western powers, pointing to
heightened international tensions over security and economic policy in
the coming years."
And if the
Chinese economy under-performs or in an event of a foreign policy crisis
like Taiwan, Xi's political strengths could quickly translate into
liability, analysts warned.
For now, Rafferty said, "Xi is set to lead China until he dies, chooses to step down, or is purged."
